by Lori Cinnamond
We’re all aware of Democrats’ historical wins in the recent general election. But here’s what you might not know: The last time Arizona elected a Democratic governor was Janet Napolitano in 2002. That same year, Arizona elected Terry Goddard as its last Democratic attorney general. With new Democratic victories for Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General and U. S. Senate, Arizona is trending Blue. Despite those wins, we can’t conclude that Arizona is now a solidly Blue state.
Only 4 of Arizona’s 15 counties – Apache, Coconino, Maricopa, and Pima – logged more votes for Katie Hobbs than Kari Lake. Of the 15 counties, 72% of all votes for governor came from just two counties: Maricopa and Pima! Maricopa County has four times the number of eligible (registered) voters as Pima County. Yet election after election, Pima County is where Democratic candidates have come to rely on to win statewide races. Take the Hobbs/Lake race. Pima County was responsible for 84k net votes for Katie Hobbs (Hobbs received 241,398 votes compared to Lake’s 157,034 votes). Our larger neighbor, Maricopa, was responsible for a 38k net votes for Governor-Elect Hobbs (Hobbs 790,352 vs Lake 752,714).[1] Every single vote is as important as another vote, no matter where cast, but taken together, Pima County plays an important role in statewide victories for Democrats.
Election turnout by party data is not available at this time, but we do have a good picture of how voters in Legislative District 18 voted. Thanks to Barbara Tellman of LD20, I am able to share with you some maps that show just how blue LD18 is:
[1] Secretary of State’s Office – 2022 General Canvass
As you can see, in every statewide race above, all but 2-4 LD18 precincts went for the Democratic Candidate.
This is due, in part, to good “demographics,” but for sure, it is due to the remarkable work of PCs and volunteers in this election and in past elections.
I look forward to availability of more data to report on more specifics in the early part of next year. For now, I encourage everyone to take a well-deserved break. Rest assured, there will be challenges ahead, but know that LD18 will not be giving up any ground and, with your help, your LD18 Data and Strategy team is hoping, to turn those charts into a deeper shade of blue in 2024!
Happy Holidays and Happy New Year. See you in 2023!
Lori Cinnamond
LD18 Data and Strategy Lead