By Simon Rosenberg, the author of the Hopium Chronicles.
June is a very important political month for the United States. Trump’s guilty verdict was a shock, and it will cause tens of millions of our fellow citizens who are not yet paying close attention to the election to begin checking in.
We have the first Presidential debate at the end of June, which will be another big check-in moment. Tens of millions of people are going to start really paying attention now, and as Democrats, we need to do everything we can to engage them, talk to them, inform them about their choices, and win them over.
We could win or lose the 2024 election in the next 30 days.
That’s why I’ve launched a new campaign here at Hopium to Make June Count. We all need to really focus this month and do everything we can to help our candidates get louder and reach these voters as they check in. We have a huge opportunity now and need to seize it together.
So, I’m asking that you commit to giving as much as you can this month, put aside a few more hours to volunteer, and be as aggressive as possible in challenging your networks to join you in making June count.
In that spirit of doing more and reaching a little higher today, we are adding a new project: Winning Arizona.
See Simon Rosenberg at LD18’s general meeting on Zoom on June 25 at 6:30 pm.
A nationally-known Democratic activist and newsletter author Simon Rosenberg will tell us about his new Making June Count campaign to support Democrats nationwide.
Rosenberg is the author of the Hopium Chronicles, a Democratic newsletter with 9,000 subscribers. Click on this link to subscribe today. He has appeared on MSNBC, C-SPAN and CNN.
Use your cellphone to scan the QR code ►►
or click https://bit.ly/LD18Rosenberg to register for our June 25 meeting on Zoom at 6:30 pm.
Three encouraging new polls
I believe we are favored to win the Presidency, flip the US House, and have a very good chance of keeping the Senate 50-50. The rash of new analyses showing Biden leading among likely voters is a big deal, for these likely voter universes are far more likely to be the electorate that shows up in November.
There are now three polls showing modest movement toward Biden:
New York Times – Biden gains 2 points since April/May
Yahoo/YouGov – Biden is up 46-44, a gain of 2 points. “After Trump felony conviction, Biden leads for 1st time in months”
CBS News/YouGov – Biden gains 3, has 1 point lead in the battleground states
So, leading among these likely voters is where we want to be right now. We are doing best today in MI, PA, and WI – the blue wall states as they are called. Each has strong governors, ambitious campaigns by labor, a track record of winning there, good economies, our Senate candidates performing well/bad GOP candidates, hard dollar and organizational superiority. We can and should win these three states.
Winning these three states gets Biden to 269 Electoral College votes. “Check” as we say in chess. “Checkmate” is getting to 270, is winning Arizona, North Carolina or Nebraska’s one Electoral College vote. That’s why, here at Hopium, we are now focusing on these three states. If we win any one of them, in my view, we will win the Presidency. It is where our money and volunteer time are most needed and best deployed.
Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona.
Ruben’s strong campaign against Kari Lake can be the engine that helps Dems win up and down the ballot in Arizona, including Biden-Harris. We have already raised $187,000 towards our $300,000 June 30th goal!
Donate to Ruben. Volunteer. Learn more. Watch my recent interview with the next Senator from Arizona here!
I am launching a big campaign here and in our networks to make June count. Here are my fundraising goals for June 30th:
- Biden Harris $400,000 – at $310,000 today – donate now
- Arizona/Ruben Gallego – $300,000 – at $187,000 today – donate now
- Nebraska/Blue Dot – $100,000 – at $1,000 today – donate now
- North Carolina – $300,000 – at $215,000 today – donate now
- Winning The House – $300,000 – at $215,00 today – donate now
To support our Making June Count campaign, I’ve updated two pages here, which now include volunteer links for Biden-Harris, the three states, and the 12 House campaigns – see Making June Count and Winning The House. Check them out. Please share them with others. Let me know what I can do to make them better and more helpful to you
In recent weeks, I’ve become convinced Trump is attempting to “red wave” the 2024 election. His entire identity right now is about him leading in the polls and being a winner, strong, and Biden losing and being weak. It’s a common tactic in politics and something Republicans used successfully in 2022.
By trying to convince everyone that the election is over, that they are going to win and that there is nothing any of us can do about it, they are attempting to suppress our enthusiasm, commitment, work, and voting. “Trump is winning” is a volunteer and electoral suppressant, as the “red wave” was in 2022.
Every day, Trump lies:
- Lies about this “strength.”
- Lies about the polls.
- Lies about the size of his crowds.
- Lies about his fundraising.
- Lies about his army of marauders who are going to suppress the election day vote.
- Lies about us cheating.
- Lies about the 2020 election.
- Lied about the red wave.
- His hair is fake.
- He paints his face.
- He wears a girdle to hide his obesity.
It is all lies, fiction, and Trumpian bullshit to make this weak, deranged, hideous man – rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon – appear like a strong man, a leader, a winner.
So to counter this strategy, we need to 1) keep working our asses off and get others to join us – do more, worry less, 2) Make June Count and push the election into a place where it is clear Biden Is Winning. That means pulling ahead by a few points in MI, PA, and WI and leading in any of the other now five states of AZ, GA, NE, NC, and NV.
Polls from the last few weeks show us ahead in Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
As the NYT’s Nate Cohn wrote: “The race is still pretty close. It’s close enough that Biden would have a very serious chance to win if the election were held tomorrow. And, of course, the race won’t be held tomorrow: There are five-plus months to go for a possible Biden comeback.”
Together, there’s a case for taking a glass-almost-half-full perspective on Mr. Biden’s chances. Right or wrong, it’s a case that maybe hasn’t gotten quite as much attention as it deserves.
How is the race close? Look to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If Biden won those battleground states, he’d probably be re-elected as president. That means he could lose all of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and so on, and still win.
The election is close, but I would much rather be us than them for all the reasons we discuss every day. This month, tens of millions of voters are going to be checking into the election for the first time, and we need to be in their faces, being loud, telling our story, and informing them about the historic awfulness of MAGA.
It is very possible that we will win or lose the election this month, which is why, together, we need to Make June Count and level the playing field now.
Just writing all this fires me up, and I am ready to go out there and do what we need to do – as we’ve been doing across the country these past few years – together. Let’s make June count, my friends.